Editorial Foreword
Belarusian Yearbook 2023 presents a comprehensive analysis of developments in the key segments of the state and society in the year 2022, which served as a transition from the political crisis of 2020 in Belarus toward the global security crisis in the region. The large-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops in February 2022, which developed into a protracted war, became a key factor affecting almost all spheres of life in Belarus.
The status of Belarus in this war is still disputed by various actors: from the accomplice of aggression to the occupied territory, and official Minsk insists on the status of the peacekeeper and the negotiating platform, although it does not deny the use of Belarusian territory by Russian troops to attack Ukraine. All these contradictions and their consequences are reflected in the texts of the authors of the Yearbook.
Main trends of the year:
Regression of political institutions, including through constitutional changes aimed at shaping a new configuration of the political system, allowing the rights and privileges of the ruling class to be cemented, bypassing the risky procedure of elections, and completely isolating any opponents of the ruling regime from the political process.
Strengthening the position of the Presidential Administration as a political and information-propaganda center, responsible for reformatting the political system through the adoption of a new version of the Constitution. Continued growth of influence of security agencies at all levels of the political system.
Acceleration of integration of Russia and Belarus in the military sphere. The subordination of the defense capabilities, infrastructure, and industry of Belarus to the needs of the Russian army, consequently – the loss of military and strategic neutrality.
The intensification of confrontation with the Western countries against the background of war in Ukraine started by Russia. The build-up of reciprocal sanctions and significant adjustments to the NATO strategy. The growing international isolation of Belarus, as a consequence – the depressing dependence on Russia in almost all spheres.
Tireless, though mostly unsuccessful, attempts of Belarusian diplomacy to intensify bargaining with the West on several basic topics: non-participation of the Belarusian army in the war, peacemaking, political prisoners, food security.
Increased pace of total elimination of Belarusian civil society organizations (CSOs). Successful cooperation and increased political representation of emigrant CSOs. Establishment by the authorities of a hierarchy of controlled pseudo-public organizations, the most verified of which were able to enter the All-Belarus National Assembly.
The big logistic turn: the reorientation of export flows to Russia as a result of the loss of Ukrainian and Western markets, as well as access to EU transit arteries. Recovery of oil rents.
Deep economic recession and man-made default, high inflation, and endemic financial destabilization. But countervailing effects and economic policies have allowed shocks to be reduced and reversed.
Since 2003, the Belarusian Yearbook project has evolved as a joint endeavor of the Belarusian expert community to compile, conceptualize, and deliver a chronicle of Belarus’s contemporary history.
The Belarusian Yearbook 2023 was developed with the participation of independent analysts, scientists and experts from various research centers and universities, including: Chatham House, GLOBSEC, Belarusian Institute for Public Administration Reform and Transformation (BIPART), The Center for New Ideas (CNI), Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies (CSFPS), Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC), School Of Young Managers In Public Administration (SYMPA), Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM, Poland), iSANS, Belarusian Council for Culture (BСC), European Humanities University (EHU, Lithuania), Manchester Metropolitan University (MMU, UK), National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" (NTUU KPI, Ukraine), projects MediaIQ and «Kosht Urada» and Belarusian expert network “Our opinion”.
Some of the authors of the Belarusian Yearbook 2023 used pseudonyms, as they remain in Belarus and for other security reasons.
A few authors of previous Yearbooks did not have the possibility to take part in work on the Belarusian Yearbook 2023 due to be sentenced as political prisoners: Valeria Kostyugova (was included into the state list of terrorists; sentenced to 10 years for political analytics deemed a conspiracy with the aim of seizing power), Andrei Porotnikov (charged with espionage for his analytics ), Yahor Lebiadok (sentenced to 5 years for analytical interviews in independent media, later recognized as extremist). The authorities also recognized the analytics of the «Kosht Urada» project as extremist materials.
Analytics is not a crime! Freedom for authors of the Belarusian Yearbook and all political prisoners!