Research and Analytical Centers: The growing role of independent expertise

Natalia Ryabova

Summary

In the crisis year of 2020 for Belarus, research centers managed to meet the sharply increased public demand for explanatory and predictive analytics, increasing their media activity. The agenda of research activity was set by various aspects of the pandemic and the political crisis, as well as changes in the social structure of society.

The forms of presentation of the results of the research sector were significantly diversified – graphic and video materials, podcasts, online conferences, own news channels, lectures in the yard communities.

The trends noted last year in the concentration of research and analytical activity in large centers or associations continued.

Trends:

International context

The main topic that influenced the activities of think tanks around the world was COVID-19. The University of Pennsylvania’s 2020 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report1 even identified a separate category to identify research institutions that best adapted their work and communications to the new “coronavirus” conditions.

The number of registered research centers from Belarus has increased dramatically – 32 (22 a year earlier), which is comparable to the figures of Serbia or Slovakia. The achievement should also be noted: the BEROC center took the 78th (out of 109) place in the regional sub-rating of research organizations in Central and Eastern Europe (a year earlier and before, no center from Belarus was present in this rating). BEROC also appeared in the list of the best new research centers. Belarusian centers still do not appear in the thematic sub-ratings.

The political crisis not only caused representation of Belarus in the media landscape, but also provoked an increase in interest in our country on the part of academic and research structures. A large number of reviews and papers of various formats were published, including studies with a serious field component (traditional and online surveys), but not all of them are publicly available.

In November, the Chatham House2 study was published, based on an online survey of urban residents and dedicated to the changing identity of the Belarusian nation. In it, the population of cities is divided according to values into three categories (“supporters of the protest”, “observers”, “opponents of the protest”) and describes the attitude of the selected groups to Russia and the actions of the Russian authorities in relation to Belarus.

Key players and key research

In 2020, due to coronavirus restrictions, no events and presentations were held, including the most significant annual events for the research community, such as the Kastryčnicki Economic Forum (KEF). Paradoxically, during this period, the research sector as a whole produced more products than a year earlier. At the same time, the increased concentration in the sector should be noted: BEROC alone produced approximately 2/3 of all studies – more than 40 analytical notes, studies and working materials (this is higher than in 2019). Including research and reviews of macroeconomics, research in the field of business conditions, social policy, green and circular economy, etc.

BEROC also launched the project “Covideconomy of Belarus”3 with the participation of the Business School of the Institute of Privatization and Management (IPM), the IPM Research Center and SATIO.

BEROC educational activities were not very active due to the pandemic, but at the beginning of the year, the center still managed to hold the KEF-2020 School of Economics for students together with the IPM Research Center, the Tenth Student School, and continued the “League of Analysts” project (together with ZUBR Capital and the IPM Business School).

The IPM Research Center conducted empirical research and produced several types of texts: working materials (focusing mainly on methodological and theoretical issues) and analytical notes/discussion materials (analysis of empirical data and recommendations) – 14 materials in total. The authors analyzed surveys of small and medium-sized businesses regarding their own development, exports, corruption, and Eurasian integration; public surveys on pension reform and the social protection system; and oil and gas relations with Russia. Some materials were created in collaboration with BEROC. In addition, the center published macroeconomic forecasts, current analytics and comments, a chart of the month and a table of the week, and participated in joint research. Business expectations were summed up in the IPM Index.

CASE Belarus (a member of the CASE research network) published an analytical report and a number of notes on Belarusian exports of services (excluding IT) within the framework of the project of the same name, an analytical report on the lessons of economic transformation in Europe for Belarus. In the autumn, the center released a paper with three scenarios of the development of the Belarusian economy depending on political conditions, as well as a paper assessing the effectiveness of various sectors of the Belarusian economy.

Belarus Security Blog has published a study on the public security system in Belarus and a thematic collection on Russian hybrid influence (in Russian and English). It also published monthly reviews of the economic security of Belarus, comments and analysis, and continued to produce the radio program “Varta”.

The expert initiative “Minsk Dialogue” held its conference, which was held in an online format in November and was called “The Belarusian crisis: contours of uncertainty in regional security”. In the past two years, the key speaker of this conference was Alexander Lukashenko, top officials also participated in it. In 2020, the program included a small number of Belarusian speakers, mainly representing the academic and expert community. Within the framework of the Initiative, reports, analytical and aide-memoirs were published, and six issues of the report “Minsk Barometer” (an overview of the main directions of foreign policy and the security situation in Belarus) were published.

The expert community “Our Opinion” continued to publish 20-25 analytical materials per month, including individual studies on the analysis of political processes, security (including anti-COVID policy), public administration, international relations, economics, social, cultural, and other policies. The Belarusian Yearbook (in Russian and English) on trends in social development, which continued in 2020, was published and presented in the form of a discussion of experts. Together with the Press Club, Belarus in Focus and the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS), “Our Opinion” organized 17 online meetings of the Expert and Analytical Club, which were published in video format and published as summary texts.

The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) published analysis, reviews, and comments. Together with the expert community, “Our Opinion” produced blitz comments, participated in the organization and conduct of the aforementioned Expert and Analytical Club. The Center has implemented the research project “COVID-19 in Belarus – optimal solutions in an unpredictable situation”, and also created a special website4 dedicated to understanding and analyzing the coronavirus pandemic.

Center for European Transformation (CET, part of the international consortium “EuroBelarus”) analyzed the events taking place in Belarusian society: the reaction to COVID-19, the moods and values of the protesters (a series of studies “Voice of the Street”, local telegram chats). A study on the interaction of innovative business and public initiatives and public participation in making environmentally significant decisions were published. The CET conducted operational field studies of the opinions of the actively protesting part of the society. A separate subject for analysis was the pandemic and the response to it.

The BIPART Research Center published studies on civil service reform, civil society organizations, local development, civil participation budgets and civil participation in budget policy, as well as the concept of public administration reform. The center also published infographics, analytics and comments for the project “Kosht Urada” (‘The Price of the State’).

The Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies published mostly analysis and commentary. In 2020, there are no “heavy” studies or reports on the Center’s website.

The Institute of Political Studies “Political Sphere” published studies “Power and reforms in the judicial system of Belarus in 2002-2020” and “Personnel policy in the judicial system of Belarus, 2000-2020”. The International Congress of Researchers of Belarus was not held.

The EAST Center (Eurasian States in Transition Research Center, registered in Poland) published a series of studies on the coronavirus (including its impact on democratic institutions); studies on Belarusian foreign policy, civil society activities regarding youth engagement and online services, the work of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the possible transformation of the political regime in Belarus. The center also produced monitoring of the news portals “Sputnik Belarus” and “Sputnik Poland” (for propaganda purposes).

The iSANS (International Strategic Action Network for Security) expert network released an analytical note on the situation in the law enforcement agencies of Belarus and a fairly large number of reports, comments and analytical materials. They are devoted to the political crisis in Belarus, military education, monitoring propaganda from Russia, and forecasting development scenarios for Belarus.

The Strategy Research Center and the Mises Center produced analysis and commentary, and summed up the year in 16 categories. Together with the entire Belarusian science, the Center suffered a heavy loss – last year, the founder of the center, Leonid Zaiko, died.

The Public Bologna Committee published a Monitoring of the implementation of the Strategic Action Plan for the Implementation of the objectives of the Development of the Belarusian education System in accordance with the principles and instruments of the European Higher Education Area in 2019, a study on the distribution and employment of Belarusian graduates. Analytics and comments were also published.

The Center for New Ideas, which at the beginning of the year decided to become a research center, held (online) expert discussions, the School of the Young Reformer, published articles, podcasts, and expert answers to questions. No Re-shape conference was held, but in early 2021, the Center restored this tradition in an online format.

A new research center – the Regional Expert Club5 appeared in Mahilioŭ. The creators declare that its goal is to become a think tank, whose activities will cover the eastern regions of Belarus.

The Center for the Study and Development of Continental Integration “Northern Eurasia” (registered in 2020) is positioned as an expert community and a think tank, specializing in the study of humanitarian, economic and military-political integration on the Eurasian continent, on promoting cooperation between Belarus and Russia within the framework of the Union State. At the moment, the organization’s website contains articles on the topics of geopolitics and security.

Unfortunately, some previously active organizations in the reporting period stopped showing “signs of life”, some even lost their websites, such as, for example, the Liberal Club. No new research or comments were published on the website of the Ostrogorsky Center.

At the end of 2020, work began on uniting non-state research centers into an Association. Its foundation was announced in February 2021.

Research products are also produced from time to time by NGOs that are not research centers. For example, The international educational public association “ACT” annually prepares and publishes the NGO Sustainability Index (together with USAID). The Office of European Expertise and Communications published the results of the Internet audience survey “Public Organizations and Citizens’ Initiatives: the potential for participation” conducted jointly with the Baltic Internet Policy Initiative in 2019. The same tandem carried out a study on the topic “Belarusian culture and ethnography”.

The human rights organization Human Constanta published reports, reviews and monitoring related to human rights (including in the context of the pandemic), and also published a study on communication with public authorities in social networks (the field part of the study was conducted in 2019 in cooperation with the Baltic Internet Policy Initiative).

In 2019, the International non-profit organization PACT commissioned a national survey (conducted by MIA Research), on the basis of which analytical notes on the attitude of Belarusians to reforms, the social contract, foreign policy, gender problems, civil society, the media and the role of the state were published in 2020.6

The Lawtrend Center for Legal Transformation published studies on volunteerism (jointly with “Rada”) and on the access of NGOs to banking services (jointly with the NGO Assembly). Experts from Lawtrend and the Assembly (Olga Smolyanko, Yuri Chausov) became the authors of the first CSO Meter country report for 2019.7 This report is a new tool for monitoring the conditions of civil society institutions.

In 2020, the public research sector was even more inconspicuous than a year before. The pandemic and the political crisis weakened the tenuous links between the public and independent research sectors that had developed in the previous two years – the points of intersection (both activities and shared views) become even smaller.

The most prominent in the field of state research centers is the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Research (BISR; established in 2019). The experts of this center are actively present in the state media. On the website of the institute “heavy” research is not presented, only the analysis is published in the section “Opinions”. BISR continues to develop its project “Expert Environments” in cooperation with BelTA.

The trend of moving sociology online continues and increases. Both the pandemic and the deterioration of the personal security situation contributed to this. Taking into account the surge of international interest in Belarus in the context of the political crisis, public opinion measurements were carried out much more than in 2019, and some of them were carried out in the traditional way. Some substitute for sociological measurements of public opinion can also be considered "popular polls" conducted on various – most often political – topics by the campaigns “Golos’", “Honest People” and “Zubr”.

Impact on policy making and relations with stakeholders

State

As already mentioned, cooperation has shrunk, and the number of points of intersection between the research sector and the state has decreased.

Civil society organizations

Since civil society organizations found themselves in a much more precarious position in 2020 than they were the year before, it should be said that their commitment to the research sector was more than modest. On the contrary, CSOs were one of the objects of study of the current situation, along with such new objects as yard communities.

Mass media

The media and research centers continue to cooperate. As in the previous year, the media turn for comments and analysis, and research centers publish their materials, columns, and research results in the media. In the wake of the coronavirus, when the public sector was weak in providing information on various aspects of the development of the pandemic, the election campaign and the political crisis, the request from the media became even more pronounced.

The dividing line between the public and independent sectors widened even further: the independent analytics sector provides comments exclusively in independent media, and the state analytics sector – in state media.

Political parties and movements

Individual experts took an active part in developing the programs of candidates for the presidential elections, as well as the strategies of political headquarters and – as lecturers – in the yard meetings during the protests. Many had to leave the country as a result of this activity.

Conclusion

Due to the growing repression, the chances of maintaining the current level of research activity are observed only in centers with “non-political” topics. Those who study topics that are perceived as “political” (human rights, state violence, legal default, harsh criticism of the authorities) may face various difficulties up to the complete termination of their activities.

Since transparency in the current conditions is a security threat, we can expect that the centers operating in Belarus will not actively promote some research, or even only send it to individual stakeholders without making it publicly available.

We should also expect a significant curtailment of the advocacy activities of research centers due to the complicated or “frozen” nature of contacts with state bodies.

The process of concentrating the main body of research in the largest centers will increase due to financial reasons and political risks, so that relatively large and “non-political” centers will benefit. Political analysts will be able to speak freely mainly from abroad.