Belarusian-Polish Relations: Hoping for further development

Summary

2018 was another year during which relations between Poland and Belarus developed steadily and intensively, although mainly in technical terms. This is confirmed by numerous bilateral visits, the expansion of trade exchanges, the large number of visas issued by Poland and the increase in the number of Polish tourists enjoying a visa-free regime.

However, established working relations do not remove differences in the security policy of the two countries, who are members of opposite military alliances: NATO and the CSTO. Poland sees the deployment of additional US and NATO forces on its territory as a guarantee of security for itself and other Eastern European countries. For Belarus, this means an increase in tension in the region, which could make it difficult to pursue a policy of limited neutrality.

Trends:

• Maintaining the frequency of contacts at the intergovernmental and Ministerial level and in the military sphere;
• Growing cross-border cooperation as a significant factor in the relations between the two countries;
• Improved political relations and, as a consequence, increased trade;
• The presence of the Russian factor as a threat to security policy in the region.

Political and military relations

2018, like the previous year, was a period of “small stabilization” with a large number of bilateral visits, including consultations at the Ministerial level and meetings of Working Groups. In 2018, former Director of the Eastern Department in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Artur Michalski was appointed Ambassador of the Republic of Poland to Belarus to replace Konrad Pawlik. At the same time, Belarus closed its Consulate General in Gdansk for economical reasons.

On January 19, Ambassador Konrad Pawlik met with Foreign Minister of Belarus Vladimir Makei and a day later with Speaker of the Council of the Republic Mikhail Myasnikovich. Both meetings were related to the upcoming end of the mission of Ambassador Konrad Pawlik. In June he was replaced by Artur Michalski.

On 7 April the Ministry of Justice of Poland and Belarus signed in Minsk a cooperation program for 2018–2020. The document provides for the exchange of experience in the development of legislation, the execution of court verdicts and the development of mediation procedures. On 29 May, the Supreme Audit Chamber of the Republic of Poland and the State Control Committee of the Republic of Belarus signed an updated cooperation agreement (the previous one was concluded in 2003).

On 28 July, in Minsk, Speaker of the Council of the Republic Mikhail Myasnikovich met with Speaker of the Senate Stanisław Karczewski. The politicians discussed political and economic relations, as well as the upcoming visit of Myasnikovich to Poland.

On 11–14 September 2018, bilateral consultations of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs took place in Warsaw. The Belarusian delegation was headed by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus Oleg Kravchenko, who met with the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Bartosz Cichocki during the visit. The meeting of experts organized at the Polish Institute of International Relations was also part of the consultations.

A group of Belarusian parliamentarians visited Warsaw on 18–20 September. The deputies met with Vice-speaker of the Senate Ryszard Terlecki and Deputy speaker Maria Koc.

On 1 November the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jacek Czaputowicz arrived in Belarus to participate in the session of the Munich conference. On the sidelines of the forum, he met with Foreign Minister of Belarus Vladimir Makei.

In 2018 there was an important event for the historical policy of Belarus and Poland. On 29 June the memorial to the victims of Nazism “Trascianec” 10 kilometers from Minsk was opened. The opening ceremony of the memorial complex was attended by the presidents of Belarus, Austria and Germany, while Polish President Andrzej Duda sent a message.

In 2018, as in previous years, the frequency of military contacts remained. As part of the inspections provided for in the Vienna document on confidence and security building measures (2011), in March military officers from Poland, France, Germany and Turkey conducted inspections in the 38th separate guards air assault brigade (Brest). On 23–26 April, officers from Belarus, in the framework of the procedures provided for in the Original Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), conducted an inspection in two Polish military units.

The next Belarusian check in the framework of the implementation of the provisions of the Vienna document was held on 6–8 June. Further, on 19–21 June, representatives of the armed forces of Poland and Belarus held consultations on cooperation in the field of arms control in Minsk.

On 28–29 August, consultations of the defense ministries of both countries were held in Brest, during which the problems of regional security were discussed. On 12–16 November, the Belarusian military observed the ANAKONDA 2018 military training held in Poland. On 20 December, the Polish side inspected the 6^th separate mechanized brigade (Hrodna).

Thus, it can be stated that political and military cooperation was quite satisfactory. However, different approaches of Poland and Belarus to regional security can negatively affect the relations between the countries. Although Belarus does not officially consider the strengthening of the Eastern flank of NATO as an action aimed at undermining its security, Minsk broadly believes that the deployment of a new US army base in Poland (Fort Trump) will increase tension in the region and subject Belarus to increased pressure from Russia to create a base of Russian troops (possibly missile). Polish experts argue that the deployment of additional allied forces will help deter Russia and strengthen the security not only of Poland but also of the Baltic States, as well as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria.

Security issues were one of the central topics of the Belarusian-Polish expert talks at the round table on 30 October which was organized by the “Minsk Dialogue” with the participation of the Institute of International Relations from the Belarusian side and the Center for Eastern Studies from Poland

Economic relations

In 2018, favorable political relations affected the increase in trade between Poland and Belarus, including, in particular, Belarusian exports, which for the first time in history exceeded imports from Poland. According to Belstat, in 2018 the trade turnover of Belarus and Poland increased by 5.3% compared to 2017 and reached USD 2.551 billion, while Belarusian exports increased by 24.0% (USD 1.345 billion), and imports from Poland decreased by almost 10.0% (USD 1.2 billion).1

Thus, Belarus for the first time reached a positive balance (USD 138 million) of trade balance with Poland. As of 1 January, 2019, 339 enterprises with Polish capital were registered in Belarus, which allowed Poland to take the fourth place among foreign investors after Russia, Lithuania and Cyprus.2

A number of events organized by Belarusian and Polish business took place in 2018. On 20 September, the Association of Polish Business in Belarus and the Polish-Belarusian Chamber of Commerce and Industry signed a cooperation agreement in Sokółka.

The Polish Foreign Ministry supported the conference on cluster development in Belarus, which was held in Homiel on October 10. On 27 November, the Minister of Antimonopoly Regulation and Trade of Belarus Vladimir Koltovich and the President of the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection (UOKiK) Marek Niechciał signed in Warsaw a Memorandum of Cooperation in the field of competition policy and consumer protection. On the same day, a meeting of the Belarusian-Polish Commission on economic cooperation and a business forum were held.

On 28 November, Vaŭkavysk hosted the Belarusian-Polish economic forum “A Step Forward”. On 4 December, the 10^th Forum of Polish investors in Belarus “Polish-Belarusian cooperation today and tomorrow” was held in Minsk.

In February, consultations were held between PKP Group and Belarusian Railways on the opening of the Vysoka-Lioŭsk – Czeremcha railway connection. The Belarusian side is interested in opening the crossing, as it would help to reduce the pressure on the railway crossing in Brest and the transshipment terminal in Małaszewicze. Investments will increase the capacity of freight routes due to the planned increase in the transport of goods from China in the framework of the “One Belt, One Road” project. This topic was also discussed during the working meeting of railway representatives from seven countries (Belarus, China, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Germany, Poland and Russia), which was held in Minsk in April.

In 2018, the National Bank of Belarus participated in the EU-funded Twinning program. Within its framework, the National Bank of Poland, the Federal Bank of Germany and the Bank of Lithuania conducted a series of trainings on the use of modern tools, including those related to payment systems, banking supervision and financial risk management.

In economic matters, the most important for Belarus was the opening of the EU market, including the Polish one – especially for agro-food products and engineering products. Belarus is also interested in energy cooperation with Poland, including the sale of energy to be produced at the nuclear power plant in Astravec. Due to the lack of a link with sufficient capacity, the construction of which the Belarusian side estimates at USD 60 million, and the opposition from Lithuania, Poland has not yet shown mutual interest in this issue.

Regional and cultural cooperation

Cross-border and regional cooperation remains an important and strengthening element of bilateral relations.

During 2018, measures were taken to improve the functioning of border infrastructure, including the capacity of border crossings. Financing was carried out mainly at the expense of the program “Poland – Belarus – Ukraine 2014–2020” (the EU has allocated, in particular, EUR 1 million for the modernization of the Bruzhi and Berastavica transit points). Fifteen projects in Brest region (almost EUR 20 million) were financed under the same program. On 21 August in Brest a forum for organizations that search for partners to receive grants under the program of the European Union was held.

In February, consultations were held with the customs services of both countries. The Belarusian side announced the introduction of additional monitoring systems at the border, which will speed up the customs clearance of goods. In May, the Polish Ministry of Investment and Development handed over EUR 228 thousand to the Belarusian customs service for the assembly of devices for weighing vehicles.

On October 17, representatives of the State Customs Committee of Belarus and the Polish customs service met with delegates of Podlaskie Voivodeship in Hrodna. During the meeting they discussed the possibility of increasing throughput capacity of border crossings Bruzgi and Kuźnica Białostocka. In November, the fire brigades of both countries held a joint training within the framework of the project “Security on the Belarusian-Polish Borders”.

In view of the constant growth of cross-border movements, issues related to the development of border infrastructure are of paramount importance. During the first three quarters of 2018, the Polish-Belarusian land border was crossed about 8 million times (a decrease of about 4.0 % compared to 2017). During the year, more than 3.9 million citizens of Belarus entered Poland and thus took second place after the citizens of Ukraine (almost 10 million people).3 As in previous years, the Polish consular services issued more than 400 thousand visas for citizens of Belarus.

It should also be noted that the visa free regime with Brest and Hrodna regions, as well as for tourists crossing the border at the airport Minsk-2 is becoming increasingly popular among Polish citizens. For the same reason, the tourist flow on the August Channel has increased.

Cultural contacts continued to develop in 2018, primarily concerning the cooperation of the Hrodna historical and archaeological Museum and Podlaskie Museum in Białystok, as well as national archives. During the year there were many joint events in the field of music, painting, theater and sports.

Conclusion

Cross-border cooperation remains the basis of relations between Belarus and Poland, although additional legal and contractual agreements are needed in this area. Despite the development of good-neighborly relations, many issues remain unsolved for years. Problems such as the regulation of the status of the Union of Poles in Belarus can be included in the category of bilateral relations, and their solution largely depends on the governments and the political will of the leadership of both countries.

We should not forget the importance of Russian policy. Russia perceives the actions of NATO Eastern flank countries as aggressive and targeted against it, accusing the NATO of violating the 1997 Act, which it has repeatedly violated itself. Aggression against Ukraine and pressure on Belarus make Russia an even greater threat not only to bilateral relations between Belarus and Poland, but also to interstate relations throughout the region.

All of the above means that the opportunities for the development of political and economic relations between Poland and Belarus have their limitations. Despite the efforts of both countries in the field of military contacts, it is difficult to imagine real cooperation in this area, including joint training of Belarus and NATO. Given the current trends and policy of Russia, this situation will continue to be relevant in the coming years.